Friday 11 September 2009

St Leger Betting Preview and Selections


The last classic of the season takes place at 3pm on Saturday at Doncaster with a field of eight runners going to post. The race run over 1mile 6furlongs is the oldest of the British Classic Races and is the third leg of the Triple Crown.

Aiden O’Brien and Saeed Suroor supply half the runners between them with Last year’s winning jockey Frankie Dettori taking the ride on Saeed Suroor’s Kite Wood. Frankie looks to have a chance of another winning St Leger ride this year with Kite Wood likely to go off favourite.

Currently a best price 11/4 (Sportingbet) Godolphins Kite Wood has already won the Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury and look set to run another decent race here. The horse has looked a bit one paced however and could be caught for toe in a finish, so we’re not sure he represents great value at the price. Godolphins other runner is Mastery 12/1 (Bet365), but we would be surprised to see him feature at the sharp end of the race.

Above Average doesn’t appear to be as his name suggests and is more like Pretty Ordinary to be honest. Barry Hill’s horse will need to show great improvement if he is to feature, but we don’t think that will happen and the 66/1 (Ladbrokes) on offer looks like a realistic assessment of his chances.

Monitor Closely has been supplemented to enter the race and presumably connections wouldn’t have shelled out £45000 if they didn’t think they had a fighting chance. The Great Voltigeur, which the horse won, is renowned as the best St Leger trial, so the chances of this horse shouldn’t be underestimated. Looks sure to run a big race.

Henry Cecil’s Father Time is a strange horse. He looked a world beater when winning the Lingfield Derby trial, but ran as if he wasn’t enjoying the extra distance when finishing third behind Monitor Closely in the Great Voltigeur. The horse is definitely talented, but appears moody and seems to have his own idea about things. The 5/1 (Stan James) looks a decent enough price given previous form and the horse could easily win if he decides to put it all in. Question marks about temperament mean we’re overlooking him, but could easily pop up to win the race.

Aiden O’Brien saddles two, but Von Jawlewnsky 100/1(Ladbrokes) looks nothing more than a pacemaker for Changingoftheguard 10/3 (Coral) who is obviously Ballydoyle’s main hope. Changingoftheguard ran a great race to finish second to Sesenta at York, but this is a jump in class again and we think there might be one or two better on the day.

John Oxx doesn’t run Derby winner Sea The Stars, but he does run Mourayan and we think this horse must have a great chance of winning. He finished just behind Sea the Stars as a two year old –beaten only half a length-and has finished behind Fame and Glory a couple of time this season already. The price on offer of 8/1 (888Sport) appears to be pretty generous and he’s our selection.

Pickabets 123

1 Mourayan
2 Kite Wood
3 Father Time
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